Patient Survival Predictors After TIPS for Decompensated Cirrhosis

A single-center retrospective study of 409 patients with decompensated cirrhosis who underwent their first Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt (TIPS) procedure between 2017 and 2023. Zhimeng Jiang developed and validated a nomogram predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival using six independent prognostic factors.

Use Cases

• Predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival from age, serum ammonia, total cholesterol, total bilirubin, albumin, and creatinine using a Cox regression-based nomogram.
• Compare model discrimination performance against MELD-Na and CTP scores using time-dependent ROC curves and AUC metrics.
• Assess clinical net benefit of the survival predictions using decision curve analysis (DCA) on the validation cohort of 123 patients.
• Validate model calibration by comparing predicted versus observed survival probabilities on calibration plots.
• Analyze the relationship between hepatic, renal, and metabolic indicators (e.g., bilirubin, creatinine, cholesterol) and long-term patient outcomes post-TIPS.

Strengths

• Model validated on a distinct cohort of 123 patients, with AUCs for 5-year survival prediction reaching 0.80.
• Identifies six specific prognostic factors (age, ammonia, cholesterol, bilirubin, albumin, creatinine) with clear clinical interpretation.
• Data covers a 7-year time range from January 2017 to December 2023.

Limitations

• Small sample size of 409 total patients from a single center limits generalizability.
• Dataset scope is extremely limited at 13.1 KB, likely containing only summary or model results, not the full patient-level data.
• Retrospective study design may introduce selection bias.

Provenance

Source

Zhimeng Jiang via figshare.

Collection Method

Single-center retrospective study of patient medical records.

Time Range

January 2017 to December 2023.

Freshness

Data collection ended in December 2023; the study was last updated in April 2026.

Geography

Single medical center; specific location unknown.