Global Chikungunya Virus Risk Projections Under Climate Change Scenarios, 2021-2100

Ensemble species distribution model projections for Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and its Aedes mosquito vectors under 16 future climate scenarios. The dataset includes risk maps for 139 countries, covering 21.26% of global land area, and was created by Qianqian Zhang using hierarchical ensemble modeling in Biomod2. It was last updated on 2026-05-27.

Use Cases

• Projecting future disease risk zones based on ensemble model outputs for 16 CMIP6 scenarios.
• Analyzing the relationship between vector suitability and virus distribution based on the 84% explanatory power described.
• Identifying high-priority surveillance zones in temperate regions based on the northward expansion projections.
• Assessing the impact of specific bioclimatic variables like isothermality on vector distributions.

Strengths

• Model performance metrics are provided, including AUC scores of 0.949 for Ae. aegypti and 0.909 for CHIKV.
• Covers 16 future climate scenarios (4 SSPs × 4 GCMs) from 2021 to 2100, providing a range of projections.
• Explicitly quantifies current global risk at 21.26% of land area across 139 countries.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• The primary data format is DOCX, which may require conversion for computational analysis.

Provenance

Source

Qianqian Zhang

Collection Method

Hierarchical ensemble modeling in Biomod2, integrating vector distributions projected from 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation.

Time Range

Projections for 2021-2100

Freshness

Last updated 2026-05-27 05:07:00; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Global, with specific mention of tropical/subtropical zones and northward expansion into temperate regions.