Predictive Model for Esophageal Cancer Surgery Complications

273 patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were analyzed in a single-center retrospective cohort study. The data was used to build a multivariable logistic regression model predicting clinically significant postoperative complications following neoadjuvant chemoimmunotherapy. The model incorporates dynamic inflammatory biomarker ΔNPR-SII2 and clinical factors like age, BMI, and ECOG score.

Use Cases

• Validate the reported multivariable logistic regression model predicting Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ II complications using predictors like ΔNPR-SII2, age, BMI, and ECOG score.
• Benchmark new complication prediction algorithms against the published model's performance metrics, including its AUC of 0.784 and C-index of 0.772.
• Analyze the relationship between dynamic inflammatory indices (like ΔNPR-SII2) and clinical outcomes in patients receiving neoadjuvant chemoimmunotherapy.
• Investigate the reported odds ratios for independent predictors, such as age ≥ 70 years (OR=2.37) or elevated ECOG score ≥ 2 (OR=3.98), in similar patient cohorts.

Strengths

• Model performance is quantified with specific metrics: an AUC of 0.784 and a bootstrap-validated C-index of 0.772.
• The study cohort includes 273 patients, providing a basis for the statistical analysis.
• Predictors are clinically defined and include both dynamic biomarkers (ΔNPR-SII2) and standard factors (age, BMI, ECOG).

Limitations

• The dataset is very small at 17.7 KB, containing only the model description and results, not the underlying patient-level data.
• As a single-center retrospective study, findings may have limited generalizability to other populations or institutions.
• The underlying raw data for the 273 patients, including column definitions and individual records, is unavailable.

Provenance

Source

Single-center retrospective cohort study by Maohui Chen, shared via figshare.

Collection Method

Analysis of 273 patients stratified by Clavien-Dindo complication grade.

Freshness

Last updated March 2026.