Climate Suitability Projections for 44 Forest Species and 49 Genetic Groups in Spain

93 forest taxa, including 44 species and 49 genetic groups, were modeled for future climatic suitability across the Iberian Peninsula. The dataset was created by Eulogio Chacón-Moreno and last updated in April 2026, integrating projections from 10 CMIP6 climate models under four socioeconomic pathways and three future time horizons. It provides spatially explicit suitability and uncertainty metrics at a 1 km² resolution to inform climate-resilient forest planning.

Use Cases

• Identify climate-resilient refugia for specific tree lineages based on genetic-group level projections.
• Assess biogeographical shifts in species suitability under different emission scenarios (SSPs) and time horizons.
• Prioritize species and provenances for restoration projects using the Percentage of Climate Models Predicting Suitability (PCM-PS) uncertainty metric.

Strengths

• Integrates species-level and genetic-group level projections for 93 distinct forest taxa.
• Uses an ensemble of 10 CMIP6 Earth System Models across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, quantifying projection uncertainty.
• Climate data is statistically downscaled to a high 1 km² resolution using observations from over 5,500 meteorological stations.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• The 28.3 KB file size suggests the dataset is a summary or framework, not the raw model outputs.

Provenance

Source

figshare

Collection Method

Statistical modeling framework integrating species distribution models, genetic adaptation data, and climate projections.

Time Range

Future projections for horizons 2021–2050, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-04-21 10:01:49

Geography

Spain (Iberian Peninsula)