Climate Suitability Projections for 44 Forest Species and 49 Genetic Groups in Spain

93 forest taxa, including 44 species and 49 genetic groups, were modeled for future climatic suitability across Spain. An ensemble of species distribution models was calibrated using downscaled climate data from 10 CMIP6 Earth System Models under four socioeconomic pathways and three future time horizons. The framework, developed by Eulogio Chacón-Moreno, provides spatially explicit projections with quantified uncertainty for climate-resilient forest planning.

Use Cases

• Identify climate-resilient refugia for specific forest lineages based on genetic-group level modeling.
• Assess biogeographical shifts in species suitability under different emission scenarios (SSPs) and time horizons.
• Prioritize species and provenances for restoration projects based on projected suitability contraction or expansion.
• Quantify uncertainty in climate projections using the Percentage of Climate Models Predicting Suitability (PCM-PS) metric.

Strengths

• Explicitly quantifies projection uncertainty using the PCM-PS metric across 10 climate models.
• Integrates species-level (44 species) and genetic-group level (49 groups) analyses for improved spatial precision.
• Uses high-resolution (1 km²) climate data downscaled from observations at over 5,500 meteorological stations.
• Models future suitability under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and three distinct time horizons up to 2100.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Geographic scope is limited to Spain, limiting direct applicability to other regions.

Provenance

Source

Eulogio Chacón-Moreno via figshare.

Collection Method

Integrated statistical modeling framework combining species distribution models, genetic differentiation data, and downscaled CMIP6 climate projections.

Time Range

Future projections for horizons 2021–2050, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-04-21 10:01:47; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Spain (Iberian Peninsula).