UCERF3: California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Fault System Solutions

UCERF3 data files contain fault system solutions for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast. The dataset includes branch-averaged and full compound solutions across multiple fault models, representing 1,440 logic tree branches. Kevin R. Milner from the University of Southern California authored the dataset, which is associated with a published scientific paper.

Use Cases

• Calculate mean seismic hazard based on branch-averaged rupture properties like magnitude and rate.
• Explore epistemic uncertainties in earthquake forecasts using the full model with 1,440 logic tree branches.
• Reproduce mean UCERF3 results with a reduced rupture set using the true mean solutions.
• Perform time-dependent hazard calculations compatible with the branch-averaged fault system solutions.

Strengths

• Includes multiple solution types: branch-averaged, full compound, and true mean for flexibility.
• Full compound solution contains data for 1,440 time-independent logic tree branches.
• Dataset is associated with a peer-reviewed scientific publication, providing methodological context.

Limitations

• Data is stored in a legacy binary format within zip containers, which is noted as being revised for user-friendliness.
• True mean solutions are not compatible with time-dependent UCERF3 calculations due to potential rate partitioning.
• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.

Provenance

Source

University of Southern California

Collection Method

Scientific modeling as part of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3).

Geography

California