U.S. Building Energy Efficiency and Flexibility Hourly Load Shapes for 2030 and 2050

Hourly savings shape data underpins an analysis of the technical potential for U.S. building efficiency and flexibility to act as a bulk power grid resource. The data, generated using Scout, ResStock, and DOE Commercial Prototype models, estimates impacts on regional system loads across the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Results suggest demand-side management could avoid up to nearly one-third of annual fossil-fired generation and half of fossil-fired capacity additions after 2020.

Use Cases

• Modeling hourly grid impacts of building efficiency measures based on the described regional load shapes.
• Analyzing the potential of building flexibility features to reduce peak demand based on net peak/low load period projections.
• Comparing energy savings across building types (single family, multi family, mobile homes) as distinguished in the data.
• Assessing long-term scenarios for fossil fuel displacement in the U.S. electricity system based on the 2030 and 2050 projections.

Strengths

• Data is disaggregated by building type, end use, and reported at both national and regional scales.
• Analysis is based on multiple openly-available modeling frameworks supported by the U.S. Department of Energy.
• Version 2 updates reflect improved building stock models and grid condition projections from the EIA 2022 Annual Energy Outlook.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Last update date is unknown; freshness unverified.
• Row count and file sizes are unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.

Provenance

Source

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Collection Method

Bottom-up simulations using Scout, ResStock, and DOE Commercial Prototype models paired with regional building stock representations.

Time Range

Projections for 2030 and 2050.

Geography

Contiguous United States, with regional breakdowns.