U.S. County-Level Climate Risk Projections for 2040-2049

Projections for climate risk across the contiguous United States at the county level integrate multiple hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities for the 2040-2049 period. The dataset uses high-resolution 4 km downscaled climate models to characterize hazards like heat waves and heavy precipitation. It was last updated on Data.gov in September 2025, though the NASA Earthdata entry lists a placeholder date of 2049-12-31.

Use Cases

• Prioritizing adaptation funding by analyzing county-level risk scores that combine hazard frequency, exposure of built surfaces, and demographic vulnerability.
• Modeling future infrastructure stress by correlating projections of sea level rise and storm surge exposure with built surface data.
• Assessing public health preparedness by examining projected frequencies of heat waves and cold spells against vulnerable demographic groups.
• Planning water resource management using projected drought frequency and precipitation anomaly data at the county scale.

Strengths

• Integrates three core risk components—hazard frequency, exposure projections, and vulnerability metrics—into a single composite index.
• Provides nationwide coverage for over 3,000 counties in the contiguous United States.
• Uses high-resolution 4 km downscaled climate projections for hazard characterization.
• Includes specific hazard types such as heat wave frequency, drought, and heavy precipitation events.

Limitations

• Critical metadata conflicts exist: the NASA Earthdata source lists a future 'last updated' date of 2049-12-31, which is implausible for a current dataset.
• No concrete row counts, file sizes, or specific column names are provided by any source, limiting precise technical assessment.
• Projections are for a future decade (2040-2049) and are subject to the uncertainties inherent in climate and socioeconomic modeling.

Provenance

Source

U.S. government sources, likely involving climate science and socioeconomic agencies.

Collection Method

Generated using downscaled climate projections integrated with models for population, infrastructure, and demographic vulnerability.

Time Range

2040-2049

Freshness

2025-09-04 (from Data.gov)

Geography

Contiguous United States at the county level.