Uganda - Subnational Displacement Forecasts

The Uganda - Subnational Displacement Forecasts dataset provides three-month settlement-level projections for South Sudanese refugees and asylum seekers in Uganda. It is based on the AHEAD model and contains both observed values from official sources and forecasted model estimates. The dataset was last updated on 2026-03-16 and is published by the Danish Refugee Council under a CC-BY-4.0 license.

Use Cases

• Forecasting refugee population trends based on the AHEAD model projections mentioned in the description
• Comparing observed displacement figures against model forecasts for validation
• Planning humanitarian resource allocation at the settlement level based on three-month projections
• Analyzing subnational patterns of forced displacement for South Sudanese refugees in Uganda

Strengths

• Provides both observed and forecasted values for direct model validation
• Offers subnational, settlement-level granularity for detailed analysis
• Projections cover a three-month forecast horizon for near-term planning
• Published under a permissive CC-BY-4.0 license

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment
• Data may reflect geographic and source bias inherent to the official sources used

Provenance

Source

Danish Refugee Council

Collection Method

Observed values drawn from official sources; forecasted values generated by the AHEAD model.

Time Range

Three-month forecast horizon from the point of data creation.

Freshness

Last updated 2026 03 16 09:07:45.393359; freshness should be verified

Geography

Uganda, at the subnational settlement level, focusing on South Sudanese refugees and asylum seekers.