UKCP18 Climate Projections and Clay Shrink-Swell Hazard at 50m Resolution

Shrink-swell is the most significant geohazard across Great Britain. This dataset from the British Geological Survey identifies areas of increased shrink-swell hazard potential due to changing climatic conditions, based on UKCP18 projections for the RCP8.5 emissions scenario up to 2070. It includes a premium version generated at a detailed 50-meter grid resolution.

Use Cases

• Model future property subsidence risk based on projected climate change impacts on clay soils.
• Prioritize regional infrastructure resilience planning based on high-resolution geohazard forecasts.
• Validate climate adaptation strategies using spatially explicit shrink-swell susceptibility data.

Strengths

• Focuses on the most significant geohazard across Great Britain.
• Provides a high-resolution 50-meter grid version for detailed analysis.
• Based on the UKCP18 climate projections for a specific (RCP8.5) emissions scenario.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Covers only one emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and dates up to 2070.

Provenance

Source

British Geological Survey (BGS)

Collection Method

Created by combining UKCP18 climate projections with geohazard susceptibility models.

Time Range

Projections up to 2070.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-04-09 08:30:01.473451; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Great Britain