Marine Invasive Species Distribution Models for North American Coasts

55 species distribution models predict present-day and year 2100 occurrence probabilities for non-indigenous marine species on North America's east and west coasts. The dataset includes 24 species for the east coast and 31 for the west coast, with future projections based on the IPCC RCP 8.5 climate scenario. Models combine monitoring data, scientific literature records, and high-resolution environmental variables to estimate species richness hotspots.

Use Cases

• Compare present-day and year 2100 occurrence probabilities for 55 non-indigenous species to assess climate change impacts.
• Identify species richness hotspots by summing occurrence probabilities across the 24 east coast and 31 west coast species.
• Analyze projected distribution shifts for specific invasive species under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario for coastal management planning.

Strengths

• Models cover 55 distinct non-indigenous species (24 east coast, 31 west coast).
• Provides temporal depth with projections for a specific future year (2100) under a defined climate scenario (IPCC RCP 8.5).
• Integrates multiple data sources including government monitoring, scientific literature, and high-resolution environmental models.

Limitations

• Spatial coverage is limited to North America's east and west coasts, not a global assessment.
• Future projections rely on a single, high-emission climate scenario (RCP 8.5), which may not represent other potential futures.
• The underlying species occurrence data may have spatial and temporal gaps inherent to biological surveys and literature compilation.

Provenance

Source

Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Coastal Ecosystems Science Division.

Collection Method

Species distribution models created by pairing species occurrence data from monitoring programs, online databases, and literature with high-resolution environmental and oceanographic model data.

Time Range

Present-day and projected year 2100.

Freshness

Last updated March 2026, with models published in November 2023.

Geography

North America's east coast and west coast marine environments.