U.S. Presidential Vote Choice by Race and Congressional District, 2016 and 2020

Modeled vote choice of geographic, demographic, and turnout subgroups with survey and ecological data in the US. The dataset models Presidential vote choice in 2016 and 2020 for each contemporaneous congressional district and each of four racial groups. The methodology is introduced by Shiro Kuriwaki of Yale University in a 2023 American Political Science Review paper.

Use Cases

• Analyze racially polarized voting patterns based on modeled vote choice by racial group
• Study geographic variation in electoral outcomes based on congressional district-level estimates
• Compare presidential election results between 2016 and 2020 based on the two election cycles covered
• Validate ecological inference methodologies based on the combined survey and ecological data approach described

Strengths

• Models data for two U.S. presidential election cycles (2016 and 2020)
• Provides estimates for each contemporaneous congressional district
• Includes breakdowns for four distinct racial groups
• Methodology is peer-reviewed and published in the American Political Science Review

Limitations

• Row count and file size are unknown, which may limit suitability assessment
• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download
• Last update date is unknown; freshness unverified

Provenance

Source

Shiro Kuriwaki, Yale University

Collection Method

Modeled from combined survey and ecological data

Time Range

2016, 2020

Geography

United States (congressional district level)